"Demographic dividend can become a demographic curse too." Comment keeping all aspects in mind. Also, explain features of population policy in India. (800 words)

According to the United Nations Population Fund, Demographic Dividend is a condition wherein the economic potential of a country is enhanced due to the working-age population (15-64 years) being greater than the non-working age group (0-14 years and 65+ years). Recently, the UNFPA declared India to be the most populous country, surpassing China. More than two-thirds of its population is in the working group, harnessing India's opportunity to rise as an economic superpower. The demographic dividend is an asset for economic fortunes as more people means more working hands. But though the population size matters, what matters more is talent resources. The low-skilled population might turn the demographic dividend into a disaster. Let us understand the major economic fallouts in the Indian demography.


The Economic Fallouts

1. LOW-SKILLED LABOUR: India is an agrarian economy. According to World Bank data, 45% of the population is working in low-skilled agriculture and allied activities. But, this contributes only 20% of GDP.

2. EDUCATION GAP: Though the enrollment of students in schools has increased, the students are not industry ready and lack practical knowledge. In addition, the Covid pandemic has extended the education gap among students.

3. LOW FEMALE WORKFORCE: Though the working-age population consists of males and females, the participation of the female workforce is meager. Most women are occupied with household chores which adversely affect the growth of an economy.

4. LACK OF OPPORTUNITIES: The growth of opportunities in India is not at pace with the growth rate of the working group. This results in unemployment.

5. LACK OF HEALTH AMENITIES: The quality of health of the working group is of utmost importance. Covid-19 reiterated this fact. But the health facilities in India are limited in comparison to its population.



The government has taken exemplary steps to fill in the gaps and reap the demographic dividend. Some of them are mentioned below.

1. JOB CREATION: The government has taken steps to improve the growth of MSMEs and startups through initiatives like mudra loans and Stand-up India schemes to name a few. These have ripple effects like job creation and make India self-reliant.

2. UPSKILLING: The government introduced schemes like PM Kaushal Vikas Yojana and Samarth schemes to promote skilling and skill upgradation. These make the working-group industry ready.

3. INCREASED HEALTH EXPENDITURE: The government has increased health expenditure to 2.71% of GDP in budget 2024. And, the government has set up Jan Aushadi Kendras to give affordable medicines to all. The Ayushman Bharat scheme is another flagship program under the health sector.

4. EDUCATION: The government has set up Eklavya Model Residential schools to provide education to tribal children. Also, the National Education Policy 2020 allows students to explore and choose amongst courses.

5. GENDER GAP: The government has taken various initiatives to address the gender issues like Beti Bachao, and Beti Padhao. Also, schemes like DAY-NRLM provide a livelihood to women through Self Help Groups. Schemes like Stand-Up India promote women's entrepreneurship.


FEATURES OF POPULATION POLICY IN INDIA

The National Population Policy was introduced in 2002 in India. The salient features of the policy are mentioned below

1. Make schooling up to the age of 14 both free and mandatory and lower the percentage of boys and girls who drop out of primary and secondary school to under 20 percent.

2. Lower infant mortality to less than 30 deaths per 1000 live births.

3. Lower the rate of maternal deaths to under 100 per 100,000 live births.

4. Ensure that every child is immunized against every disease that can be prevented by a vaccine.

5. Encourage girls to wait until they are at least 18 years of age, preferably until their 20, before getting married.

6. Achieve 80 percent of institutional deliveries and 100 percent of trained person deliveries.

7. Achieve universal access to services for regulating fertility and contraception, as well as information counseling, with a wide range of options.

8. Another important feature of the National population policy is to achieve complete birth, death, marriage, and pregnancy registration.

9. Stop the spread of AIDS and prevent and manage contagious illnesses.

10. Work hard to promote the small family rule to raise TSR levels to replacement levels.


To sum up, China's aging population and the West's quest for a China-plus-one solution for its production present India with opportunities to attract industry and become a global manufacturing hub. The government has already put India on this path with a massive hike in capital expenditure at around 20% of GDP, the highest in almost a decade. Hence, by addressing the fallouts and with the right moves, India can successfully reap the demographic bonus, but if failed it can become a demographic disaster.






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